Tuesday, June 17, 2014
The crying chorus of Australia’s retailers continues.
Yesterday ‘market darling’ Super Retail Group (SUL) issued its second downgrade in the space of five weeks, blaming “the significant downturn in consumer confidence since the federal budget, particularly across the lower to mid income families who represent the Group’s core customer”.
In that same announcement Group Managing Director Peter Birtles confirmed that he is confident his company’s profit revisions are the “result of external factors as opposed to any deterioration in internal execution”.
If Birtles is right, buying now with the expectation of rising consumer confidence could be a winning strategy.
Are you avoiding retailers, or have you put on your contrarian hat?
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
It’s not rocket science. If you invest in the US and the A$ falls 10 per cent against the greenback, you’ll receive an extra 10 per cent return when you eventually bring your money home. The same can also be said for those investing locally in stocks that derive a good chunk of their income from foreign earnings.
Established healthcare businesses, many of which have substantial operations outside Australia, like CSL Ltd, and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from a weaker Aussie dollar, due partly to segmented pricing which makes local retailers more competitive relative to overseas online stores.
As a rule of thumb, a 10 per cent drop in the A$ adds around 3 per cent to corporate earnings.
To determine the A$ impact on earnings, find out the percentage of profits generated from the company’s international operations and apply the change in currency to this proportion of profits.
Monday, March 24, 2014
If you take the 170-odd stocks that Skaffold currents rates as investment grade (A1, A2, B1 and B2) and then filter those with both a positive safety margin – trading at a discount to their intrinsic value – that are also forecast to grow their intrinsic value, we’re left with only a handful of stock to invest in. All things considered, these are the best quality companies that value investors could justifiably contemplate buying at current levels.
However, it’s important to remember that the share market is a constantly moving feast, and that companies can move in and out of investment grade status, as measured by the Skaffold Score, each reporting season due to any number of macro influences and company specific dynamics.
So with that in mind, we decided to go in search of companies that could potentially be knocking on the door of investment grade status if their fortunes continue to improve.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Having watched growth stock FlexiGroup Ltd (FXL) rally hard on the back of favourable market sentiment this year, value investors can be forgiven for wondering whether now is a good time to join the herd and buy into this exciting financial services group.
Some brokers have a consensus target price in excess of $5.00 on the stock, yet based on the 19 December closing price of $4.21, FXL is trading at a 27% premium to its intrinsic value, according to Skaffold. As a value investor this should trigger a big red flag, despite on many metrics FXL’s share price has an outstanding track record.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Over the weekend more than 70 companies updated in Skaffold. The number of A1-rated companies fell to 39, and A2-rated companies to 81 companies.
Companies to update based on their recent interim or full year results include include Breville Group (BRG), mining services business Sedgman (SDM), for casino operators Crown Group (CWN) and Echo Entertainment Group (EGP), BHP Billition (BHP), Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), Iluka Resources (ILU), Cabcharge (CAB), Fleetwood (FWD), Fantastic Holdings (FAN), Village Roadshow (VRL), Adelaide Brighton (ABC), Alumina (AWC), Goodman Group (GMG), APN News and Media (APN), Tatts Group (TTS), Infomedia (IFM), Data#3 (DTL), Ausenco (AAX), Magellan Financial Group (MFG), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), AMP Limited (AMP), Seven West Media (SWM), iiNet (IIN), Macquarie Radio Network (MRN), Fairfax Media (FXJ), Envestra (ENV), Brambles (BXB), Chandler Macleod Group (CMG), Austin Engineering (ANG), Codan (CDA), The Reject Shop (TRS) and NRW Holdings (NWH), Platinum Asset Management (PTM), Mermaid Marine (MRM), Australian Share Registry (ASW), Super Retail Group (SUL), Amalgamated Holdings (AHC), TCT Tomlinson (RCR), Servcorp (SRV), SEEK (SEK), ASX Limited (ASX) and Origin Energy (ORG).
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
Over the next six weeks more than 60% of the companies listed on the ASX will report their full year results.
How will the results flow through Skaffold?
Throughout August Skaffold members will receive a weekly email highlighting a selection of companies that have reported.
Following are a few well-known companies scheduled to report their full year results over the next few weeks...
Telstra (TLS), Transurban Group (TCL), Stockland (SGP), Cochlear (COH), Credit Corp (CCP), Tabcorp (TAH), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Newcrest Mining (NCM), Brambles (BXB), ASX Limited (ASX), Echo Entertainment (EGP), Duet Group (DUE), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), UGL Limited (UGL), Ansell Limited (ANN), Wesfarmers (WES), Carsales.com (CRZ), Goodman Group (GMG), Monadelphous (MND), Boral (BLD), Super Retail Group (SUL), Fairfax Media (FXJ), Qantas (QAN), Cabcharge (CAB), Billabong International (BBG), BHP Billiton (BHP), Woolworths (WOW), CSL Ltd (CSL), Fortescue (FMG), Origin Energy (ORG), Amcor (AMC), AGL Energy (AGK), QR National (QRN), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), Crown (CWN), CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX), Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC), Worleyparsons (WOR), Lend Lease (LLC), Transfield Services (TSE), Perpetual (PPT),
Click here to view a detailed reporting season calendar.