Tuesday, April 08, 2014
It’s not rocket science. If you invest in the US and the A$ falls 10 per cent against the greenback, you’ll receive an extra 10 per cent return when you eventually bring your money home. The same can also be said for those investing locally in stocks that derive a good chunk of their income from foreign earnings.
Established healthcare businesses, many of which have substantial operations outside Australia, like CSL Ltd, and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from a weaker Aussie dollar, due partly to segmented pricing which makes local retailers more competitive relative to overseas online stores.
As a rule of thumb, a 10 per cent drop in the A$ adds around 3 per cent to corporate earnings.
To determine the A$ impact on earnings, find out the percentage of profits generated from the company’s international operations and apply the change in currency to this proportion of profits.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Is a trend appearing amongst casino and entertainment stocks?
Over the weekend full year results for Echo Entertainment Group (EGP), Tatts Group (TTS) and Crown Limited (CWN) flowed through Skaffold. Echo’s Skaffold Score improved from B3 (based on the company’s interim results) to B2. B2 is one of Skaffold’s preferred scores. Tatts Group (TTS) rose from C4 to B3 and Crown’s improving business performance lifted its Skaffold Score from A4 to A3.
TTS and EGP are trading at premiums of more than 60% to Skaffold’s 2014 intrinsic value estimates. CWN is trading at a 40% premium. Whilst the intrinsic value of all three businesses is forecast to rise at an impressive rate over the next two years, looking at the Skaffold Line chart of each stock it appears the market has already factored in this future growth.
What’s driving the improving performance of gambling-related stocks? Is the increasing accessibility of internet gambling driving this trend. And what does this mean for the wider community?
Friday, July 12, 2013
August reporting season is the busiest time of year for stock market investors. More than 60% of ASX-listed companies will release their full year results in August, with the smaller mining stocks reporting by 13 September 2013.
Skaffold’s reporting season calendar is now live and will be updated daily over the next few months. The calendar lists the most popular ASX-listed companies and their expected report date. Click here to view the calendar now.
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
The Australian dollar dipped below US92¢ on June 24 – its lowest point since September 2010 – and mounting projections that it could fall to around US85¢ within two years heralds mixed blessings for stocks on either side of the currency divide.
So if you subscribe to the view that a falling Australian dollar is (among other things) the inevitable by-product of waning foreign investor appetite for $A assets, you also need to ask what this means for the stocks you currently own, and how you can profit from it.
The correlation between the Australian dollar and share price movements – and interest rates, for that matter – has declined somewhat in recent years. Nevertheless, when it comes to identifying the most likely winners and losers within a falling Australian dollar environment, there are some useful guiding principles that you as an investor should understand.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
While often overlooked by investors when analysing fundamentals, there’s no better insight into what’s left for you as a shareholder in a business once it’s paid all its bills than an analysis of cash flow. When it comes to assessing the investment quality of a company's cash flow, you should be attracted to those with sufficient money in the bank to fund their operations and produce an ongoing Funding Surplus. The greater a company’s Funding Surplus the more likely it is to avoid excessive borrowing, expand its business, pay dividends and withstand any economic downturns.
You need to be wary of well-known large-caps with unhealthy cash positions which may still attract uninformed investors due to their size. High profile stocks with large debt and poor cash flow – which contributes to poor Skaffold Scores - include: Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Seven Group Holdings (SVW), James Hardie Industries (JHX), Toll Holdings (TOL), Oil Search (OSH), Woodside Petroleum (WPL), Leighton Holdings (LEI), Asciano (AIO), Duet Group (DUE), Tabcorp Holdings (TAH), Transurban (TCL), Brambles (BXB), Origin Energy (ORG), SP AusNet (SPN), APA Group (APA) and Sydney Airport Holdings (SYD).
Thursday, June 06, 2013
When is the best time to buy shares? Do you insist on a 20% safety margin across the board? Maybe you’re prepared to pay a little above today’s value because you believe the future value of the business is likely to be materially higher. If you find a great business, and are planning to remain an owner for five years or more, will paying an extra 5 or 10 per cent today really matter if your timeframe as an investor in the business is over 5 or 10 years?
Whatever your approach, be consistent. It’s when investors deviate from their investment approach that trouble can occur. Also remember that you won’t make money on every trade. When it comes to investing, not losing money is just as important as picking the winners.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Over the weekend more than 70 companies updated in Skaffold. The number of A1-rated companies fell to 39, and A2-rated companies to 81 companies.
Companies to update based on their recent interim or full year results include include Breville Group (BRG), mining services business Sedgman (SDM), for casino operators Crown Group (CWN) and Echo Entertainment Group (EGP), BHP Billition (BHP), Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), Iluka Resources (ILU), Cabcharge (CAB), Fleetwood (FWD), Fantastic Holdings (FAN), Village Roadshow (VRL), Adelaide Brighton (ABC), Alumina (AWC), Goodman Group (GMG), APN News and Media (APN), Tatts Group (TTS), Infomedia (IFM), Data#3 (DTL), Ausenco (AAX), Magellan Financial Group (MFG), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), AMP Limited (AMP), Seven West Media (SWM), iiNet (IIN), Macquarie Radio Network (MRN), Fairfax Media (FXJ), Envestra (ENV), Brambles (BXB), Chandler Macleod Group (CMG), Austin Engineering (ANG), Codan (CDA), The Reject Shop (TRS) and NRW Holdings (NWH), Platinum Asset Management (PTM), Mermaid Marine (MRM), Australian Share Registry (ASW), Super Retail Group (SUL), Amalgamated Holdings (AHC), TCT Tomlinson (RCR), Servcorp (SRV), SEEK (SEK), ASX Limited (ASX) and Origin Energy (ORG).
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
Over the next six weeks more than 60% of the companies listed on the ASX will report their full year results.
How will the results flow through Skaffold?
Throughout August Skaffold members will receive a weekly email highlighting a selection of companies that have reported.
Following are a few well-known companies scheduled to report their full year results over the next few weeks...
Telstra (TLS), Transurban Group (TCL), Stockland (SGP), Cochlear (COH), Credit Corp (CCP), Tabcorp (TAH), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Newcrest Mining (NCM), Brambles (BXB), ASX Limited (ASX), Echo Entertainment (EGP), Duet Group (DUE), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), UGL Limited (UGL), Ansell Limited (ANN), Wesfarmers (WES), Carsales.com (CRZ), Goodman Group (GMG), Monadelphous (MND), Boral (BLD), Super Retail Group (SUL), Fairfax Media (FXJ), Qantas (QAN), Cabcharge (CAB), Billabong International (BBG), BHP Billiton (BHP), Woolworths (WOW), CSL Ltd (CSL), Fortescue (FMG), Origin Energy (ORG), Amcor (AMC), AGL Energy (AGK), QR National (QRN), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), Crown (CWN), CFS Retail Property Trust (CFX), Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC), Worleyparsons (WOR), Lend Lease (LLC), Transfield Services (TSE), Perpetual (PPT),
Click here to view a detailed reporting season calendar.
Monday, July 02, 2012
More than 50% of the companies listed on the ASX will report their full-year results next month. You can review your portfolio by checking the cash position of the ones you hold and removing those that don’t display high-quality economics. Skaffold has put together a list of large, well-known companies with unhealthy cash positions. Despite having market caps of at least $2 billion, their generally high debt and poor cash flow contribute to Skaffold Scores of B4, B5, C1, C2, C3, C4 or C5.